Exploring the Future of Cash in Germany: A Foresight Study

Safeguarding the role of cash ...

Many continue to experience the payment landscape in Germany as being shaped by cash. But in Germany, too, the use of cash has been declining for some years now. The coronavirus pandemic has significantly accelerated change processes in payment behaviour. While cash payments accounted for 82.5% of total transactions in 2008, their share fell to 51% in 2023. At the same time, we see an increase in the use of debit cards (27% in 2023) and mobile payments (6% in 2023).

Nevertheless, cash remains an important part of economic life in Germany. Consumers expect to be able to pay with cash and want to maintain the freedom of choice between cash and cashless means of payment. On top of consumers’ preferences in favour of cash, the Bundesbank considers resilience, crisis preparedness, and inclusivity for all groups in society as further reasons why cash should be firmly anchored in the payment landscape. A functioning cash infrastructure with good access to cash and high acceptance rates of cash is crucial for this.

The Bundesbank has a statutory mandate to facilitate the smooth functioning of cash and cashless payments. Together with the other Eurosystem central banks, the Bundesbank works to ensure that euro cash remains generally available and accepted as a means of payment and store of value. That said, some developments such as the declining use of cash for payments and the thinning out of ATM networks suggest that a future with cash cannot be taken for granted.

… calls for future-oriented research

With this in mind, the Bundesbank has turned its attention to exploring what sort of long-term future cash might have in Germany. In order to be able to proactively shape the evolution of cash in light of the trends we are currently seeing, we need an idea of the environment in which cash will be embedded in future. What developments and trends will influence the payment landscape and the cash cycle over the next 15 to 20 years?

To take due account of the intricacies of the way in which cash is embedded in social and economic structures, a future-oriented study design is called for. One option is to take the strategic foresight route. The Bundesbank has therefore commissioned ...

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